SPATIAL REGRESSION ANALYSIS OF SOCIAL-HEALTH DETERMINANTS OF COVID-19 IN INDONESIA

Abstract

The first coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was discovered in Wuhan, China in the end of 2019 that rapidly widespread to the world.  In March 2020, World Health Organization (WHO) declared the COVID-19 pandemic.  Indonesia reported the first COVID-19 case in early March of 2020.  The delta variant of COVID-19 in 2021 caused a sharp increase of COVID-19 in Indonesia reaching 4,262,720 cases and it was the highest in Southeast Asia.  The government then distributed the vaccines across the country and intensified vaccination of first and second doses to prevent an increase in COVID-19 cases.  Besides, Indonesia has a burden of communicable and non-communicable diseases that can cause a decrease in immunity that risks for COVID-19.  This study aimed to determine social and health determinants that influence the numbers of COVID-19 cases in Indonesia in 2021.  The dependent variable was COVID-19 cases and independent variables were 1) population density, 2) expenditure per capita, 3) proportion of people with first dose vaccination, 4) proportion of people with second dose vaccination, 5) numbers of vaccine distribution, 6) numbers of tuberculosis cases, and 7) percentage of population having health problems that interrupted daily activities.  Data of the study variables in 34 provinces of Indonesia were secondary data retrieved from Ministry of Health and Central Bureau of Statistics of Indonesia.  The health and social variables were analyzed with spatial regression to identify their influence on COVID-19 cases.  The study showed health determinants significantly affect COVID-19 cases were the proportion of people with second dose vaccination and percentage of the population having health problems that interrupted daily activities.  The result suggests that administering booster vaccination was needed as a way to prevent wider infections of COVID-19.  In addition, patients with health problems must be prioritized in obtaining health services during the pandemic of COVID-19 because they have greater risks to be infected.