COMPARISON OF GM (1,1) AND IMPROVED GM (1,1) MODELS FOR PREDICTION OF HUMAN IMMUNODEFICIENCY VIRUS AND ACQUIRED IMMUNE DEFICIENCY SYNDROME INCIDENCE IN PR CHINA

Abstract

Human immunodeficiency virus and acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) continues to be a serious global public health problem negatively impacting development of society and economy, and morbidity and mortality from AIDS are increasing worldwide. Since 1985, when China reported AIDS cases for the first time, incidence of this disease has been continually increasing making prevention and control of AIDS a top public health priority in the country. From AIDS incidence data of the China Health Statistics Yearbook 2010 - 2018, we constructed a standard GM (1,1) model and an improved version to predict AIDS incidence in PR China. Accuracy grade of GM (1,1) and improved GM (1,1) model was at Level 1 (excellent), with mean absolute error of 2.00 and 1.98 and root mean squared error of 2.45 and 2.43 respectively. The improved GM (1,1) model had a higher prediction accuracy performance and simulated well AIDS incidence in PR China from 2010 to 2018. These findings should provide a theoretical basis for science-based guidance on AIDS control and prevention in PR China.